International buyers active above the $10 million threshold are reconfiguring their geography. Christie’s International Real Estate’s 2026 Global Luxury Perspectives report, published last month, shows Dubai and Singapore gaining share in cross-border transactions at the expense of Aspen and the Hamptons — a rotation that reflects both dollar dynamics and a broader reassessment of where political and currency risk sits.
That capital shift is one of three forces shaping the firm’s headline Prime Sentiment Index reading of 14.4, down from 15.6 in 2025. The PSI remains above zero — which signals positive market momentum — but the retreat from last year’s level is a clear signal that conditions are settling rather than running.
The component structure deserves close reading. Buyer demand dropped from 37.7 to 29.3, the index’s largest single-component move. The price outlook subcomponent actually ticked up, from 13.8 to 14.0, which means the brokers and listing agents Christie’s surveyed still expect appreciation in 2026 — at a reduced pace, but in the same direction. Inventory pressure eased meaningfully, which transforms what could read as a demand-shock into a supply-demand normalization.
Domestically, new construction completions are reaching market in Florida, Hawaii, and Western ski corridors — Vail Valley, the Wasatch Front — after a two-to-three-year lag behind the demand surge of 2021 and 2022. Naples, Florida cooled the most sharply among tracked US markets. Vail Valley followed. The Hamptons held flat. New York City posted gains across every PSI component, with the trophy-condo segment in particular showing renewed strength — a reversal from the city’s extended underperformance during the remote-work years.
International Markets Diverge
Mexico City and Lisbon led the international improvement category. That performance reflects both relative affordability at the top of local markets and growing demand from American and Northern European buyers seeking legal residency pathways. London and Paris were flat. Their combined underperformance now spans several survey cycles, suggesting that currency headwinds and political risk premiums on European trophy assets are not resolving quickly.
Christie’s is calling the 2026 PSI reading a “glide toward equilibrium” — a phrase the firm uses deliberately to distinguish this moment from a turn. The broker networks are reinforcing that interpretation: asking prices on trophy listings have not come down, bid-ask spreads have tightened rather than widened, and close rates have stabilized.
The October reading will be the first data point to test whether Q3 transaction flow confirmed the equilibrium or moved against it.
Source: Christie’s Prime Sentiment Index Slips to 14.4 as Luxury Housing Rebalances
