A simple evaluation of recent trends suggests that by 2028, tariff levels are likely to exceed those present when President Trump first took office in January. Current indicators point to a sharp increase, with the precise extent of the rise remaining uncertain.
During his two terms, the former president introduced an extensive series of tariffs. Consequently, the nation now contends with its highest average tariff rate seen in more than a hundred years. This collection of measures has paved the way for further increases, making any reversal of the policy a formidable task.
Lawmakers have shown little eagerness to alter the existing approach. Many Republican representatives are hesitant to confront a prominent party figure, while Democratic members have often supported trade policies backed by labor groups. In light of these dynamics, forming a coalition with enough votes to change the current tariff structure proves to be a complex challenge.
Without major legislative intervention, the current tariff framework is expected to persist. Although discussions with various trade partners might bring a degree of relief, a complete rollback of the measures remains unlikely. Forecasts for 2028 vary considerably, with rates potentially reaching as low as 5 percent—approximately twice the rate from the early days of the former president’s term—or escalating to 25 percent or more.
The upward trend may impact future trade.
